Today, fossil fuel reserves and production are concentrated in a handful of countries. Will the same be true for renewable energies? Or will we see a different model emerge, with reserves and production spread more widely across the planet?

Key countries in the geography of fossil fuels

The world’s conventional oil resources are relatively concentrated, with a third of the planet’s reserves located in just two countries: Venezuela and Saudi Arabia. Adding in Canada, Iran and Iraq, five countries account for two thirds of total reserves. And once Russia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates are factored in, the percentage rises to 80%. In short, eight countries hold 80% of the world’s oil reserves.

The geography of oil production is different, but just as concentrated. The United States is currently the world’s largest oil producer. This is a very recent development and is due primarily to the American shale oil boom. Saudi Arabia and Russia rank second and third. Together, these three countries account for 40% of global oil production. With Canada and China, the percentage rises to 50%. Next come the United Arab Emirates, Iran and Iraq. The Middle East, which holds 50% of the world’s oil reserves, only represents 30% of global oil production today, which means that it will be a key region in the future.

The two main countries with natural gas reserves are Iran and Russia, which between them hold a third of total global reserves. With Qatar and Turkmenistan, the percentage rises to 60%. Other countries with significant reserves include the United States, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela and Nigeria. In all, just nine countries account for 80% of global natural gas reserves, and the Middle East alone holds 40% of the total.

“In all, just nine countries account for 80% of global natural gas reserves.”

Here too, the map of production is different because some countries have a very high output compared to their proportion of global reserves. The United States is far and away the world’s largest producer of natural gas, accounting for 20% of global output. Next comes Russia; together, the two countries produce 40% of the world total. Adding in Qatar, Iran and Canada, the top five countries represent two-thirds of worldwide production.

According to International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts compatible with a 2°C scenario[1], the proportion of gas in the energy mix will have to rise in the future, not only because there are considerable resources available, but also because natural gas is the least polluting fossil fuel. I emphasized this point in my first LinkedIn post with the example of Total, whose gas reserves are already larger than its oil reserves.

As for coal, resources are also relatively concentrated from a geographic standpoint. The largest reserves are located in the United States, Russia and China. The biggest producer is China, which alone accounts for nearly 50% of global output. Coal is the most polluting fossil fuel, producing twice the emissions of natural gas in electricity generation. For this reason, Total will have disposed of all of its coal operations by the end of 2016, in line with its commitments to fighting climate change.

Given that coal, oil and gas currently make up around 80% of the global energy mix, only a few key countries dominate the energy landscape. Fossil fuel resources and their control have been of crucial geopolitical importance both in the past and in the present. This will continue to be true for many years to come. Under the IEA 2°C scenario, fossil fuels will account for around 60% of the global energy mix in 2040, while renewable energies will see their share rise to 30%. With this in mind, Total’s ambition is to expand in renewables and bioenergies and make them a new business. We are therefore planning to invest at least $500 million a year in renewable energies.

Which countries will be the key producers of renewable energies?

Today, a fifth of the world’s electricity is generated by renewable energies, mainly hydro, solar, wind and biomass. And for the most recently installed power generation capacity, the contribution of renewable energies is as much as 90%. China is the world’s largest producer of electricity from renewable sources, accounting for 25% of the global total. Next in line are the United States, Brazil and Canada.

Solar: the planet’s most evenly distributed energy source

Solar energy, by nature, is widely available around the globe, even though countries in certain regions benefit from very intense solar radiation. At present, solar represents a tiny 1% of the global energy mix, but it is growing rapidly. According to IEA forecasts, this trend should continue in the years ahead. China, the United States, Germany, Japan and Italy currently have the most installed capacity for solar power generation, and India could catch up quickly.

Electricity is generated either by large centralized solar power plants or by small decentralized units made up of solar panels on rooftops. While large thermodynamic and photovoltaic solar farms are primarily located in wide open rural areas with abundant sunshine, notably in the United States, South America, North Africa, Australia and India, rooftop systems can be installed just about anywhere.

Total, with its SunPower affiliate, recently built the world’s largest photovoltaic power plant in the California desert. The 747 MW (dc) Solar Star projects stretch over an area measuring eight kilometers long by five kilometers wide. The main drawback of this type of solar farm is the amount of space needed for the installation. In light of this, and the fact that its extremely efficient cell technology packs an even greater punch on a small surface, SunPower has chosen to focus primarily on a local production model based on rooftop systems.

Solar is a decentralized energy source that will make it possible to respond more effectively to the need for energy access, particularly in Africa, where nearly half the population does not have access to energy. By 2050, Africa will have a population of two billion and will account for a huge share of the world’s energy consumption.

“In Africa, nearly half the population does not have access to energy.”

The continent has both substantial fossil energy resources and great potential in renewables, with solar in North Africa and the Sahel region and hydro in sub-Saharan Africa. Yet energy production remains relatively weak. This is a real challenge for a group like Total, which aims to provide reliable, sustainable and affordable solutions for energy access.

Biomass and biofuels: numerous available resources

Biomass is a renewable energy that is broadly available and widely used around the world. Energy is obtained from combustion, methanation or the chemical transformation of organic matter such as household or agricultural waste. The United States leads the world in generating electricity from biomass, accounting for nearly 30% of global production, ahead of Brazil.

At Total, we are interested in bioenergies as a source of biofuel. We are currently developing a unit to process biodiesel from used oils in southern France. This unit will be one of the largest biorefineries in Europe.

Wind and hydropower: promising developments

According to IEA forecasts, wind should be at least as important as solar power by 2035, if not more so. The wind power industry is primarily present in Europe, North America and Asia. Recently, China became the country with the biggest installed wind power capacity (25% of the world total), ahead of the United States, Germany, Spain and India. While the profitability of offshore wind farms is still somewhat in question, notably because of the huge maintenance costs involved, onshore wind energy is now profitable without subsidies. Total has tested onshore wind power a few times in the past and intends to take a second look to see if this is an area in which it wants to invest.

Similarly, we want to revisit the potential of hydroelectric power, which is the leading renewable energy source in the world today. Hydro includes both land-based dams and marine energy produced by waves, currents and tides. The world’s largest hydro power producers are China, Brazil, Canada and the United States. On a smaller scale, it is interesting to note that a country like Norway gets 99% of its electricity from hydro power.

Energy: more than ever a source of worldwide progress

Even though fossil fuels will continue to dominate the global energy mix over the next 20 years, more and more energy will come from renewable sources and decentralised production will be increasingly possible. This will contribute to local economic, social and human development all around the world.