This is George Osborne’s eighth Budget, and the second with a Conservative majority in the Commons. The chancellor has warned of a cocktail of threats to the UK economy in preparation for a likely downgrade in economic growth this year and next, and a tougher spending package to meet his demand for a budget surplus in 2020.

Scotland/North Sea oil

What we know: Last year, the Treasury helped Scotland’s oil and gas industry with £1.3bn worth of tax relief on investment spending. Most North Sea operators are facing big problems as a result of the low oil price.

What to look out for: The chancellor could offer further help by cutting the headline rate of tax on oil firms. He is likely to talk about the Scottish rate of income tax (SRIT), which will play a significant role in Holyrood elections on 5 May. Scottish Labour and the Lib Dems want a 1p rise above the rate in England.

Fuel duty

What we know: Fuel-duty freezes for the past six years have prevented tax rises of 17p per litre to pump prices when set against Labour’s plans. The exchequer would be more than £20bn better off this year if the duty rises had gone ahead.

What to look out for: The chancellor has “pencilled in” an increase in fuel duty of 1.3%, or 0.75p, to capitalise on low petrol and diesel prices at the pump. But he is under pressure from his own backbenchers to continue the freeze, at a cost of £350m this year.

Economy

What we know: The UK economy expanded by 2.4% in 2015 and was forecast to repeat that rate of growth this year – until China and the US slowed and markets went into a tailspin.

What to look out for: A downgrade by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to nearer 2% for 2016. That will trigger a reduction in the forecast for wages and tax receipts, knocking the chancellor’s deficit reduction plan off course. But lower inflation is expected to ease the debt burden and offset stagnant tax revenues.

Public spending

What we know: The chancellor has indicated that the weakening economic outlook means he must make savings of another £4bn to meet his fiscal charter and create a budget surplus in 2020. The government has already signalled £1.2bn of cuts to disability welfare spending.

What to look out for: Further cuts to welfare budgets, and taking another swipe at council spending and police budgets to help him balance the books.

Pensions

What we know: George Osborne has shelved plans for a radical overhaul of pension savings, but will cut the lifetime limit on pension savings of £1.25m to £1m from April 2016. The lifetime limit caps the tax benefits of saving in a pension by applying a 55% tax rate on amounts above the limit. The annual allowance for pension contributions will be gradually reduced from £40,000 to £10,000 for those earning between £150,000 and £210,000 a year.

What to look out for: There is a chance Osborne might reduce the tax-free lump sum from 25%. He is expected to keep the triple lock on the state pension, which will mean it rises by the higher of annual earnings, inflation or 2.5% annually.

Personal tax

What we know: The main tax rates are expected to remain in place, including the 45p tax on incomes above £150,000.

What to look out for: After dragging more than 1.5 million people into the higher-rate tax band since becoming chancellor, Osborne could raise both the income tax personal allowance and the higher-rate threshold faster than forecast. The higher-rate threshold of £42,385 is due to rise to £42,700 in April and to £43,300 next year. Osborne wants to reach a threshold of £50,000 by 2020. The personal allowance will also rise from £10,600 to £10,800 before reaching £11,000 next April, lifting 600,000 people out of paying income tax. The target is £12,500 by 2019-20, and he may also want to make faster progress to reach this target.

Transport

What we know: There will be feasibility studies for a trans-Pennine road tunnel, a Manchester to Leeds high-speed rail line and Crossrail 2 – a new north-south underground link for London.

What to look out for: The publication of a report on Network Rail by HS1 boss Nicola Shaw that could recommend selling off rail lines or big stations. Moves to bring forward capital spending for infrastructure projects with initial funding amounting to £300m, although there is not expected to be any new money.

Tax avoidance

What we know: Osborne says aggressive tax avoidance is “morally repugnant” and regularly tries to close loopholes. He has adopted the OECD’s policy of information-sharing and disclosure by multinationals of their tax position to support a crackdown on avoidance.

What to look out for: A move away from targeting US multinationals to contractors who sell their services “off the books” to the public sector through personal service companies. These allow workers to reduce their income bills and avoid national insurance. Television presenters such as Fiona Bruce and Jeremy Paxman often use this tactic – hence its nickname, the “Paxman tax ploy”.

Business rates

What we know: The chancellor will announce the results of the review of the business rates system in the budget. . High street retailers hate this tax – because they pay far more than online retailers. But it brings in big money: £28bn this year, according to the OBR

What to look out for: The chancellor is expected to reject pleas to overhaul the system in favour of the status quo.

Sin taxes

What we know: Alcohol and cigarettes are always likely to attract higher taxes. The chancellor is under pressure to extend the reach of sin taxes to sugar.

What to look out for: A sugar tax will be rejected in favour of other measures to change behaviour and tackle Britain’s obesity crisis. Duty increases on beer and cider will likely stay low while wine drinkers and smokers will probably be punished again. Tax on wine in the UK has gone up by 57% since 2008.

Insurance premiums

What we know: Insurance premium tax – payable on general insurance policies such as home and car cover – is a stealth tax and many consumers are unaware of its cost. Last year, the Treasury increased it by more than 50%, from 6% to 9.5%, adding around £100 to the insurance bills of many households.,

What to expect: Another hike is likely – possibly to 12% – especially if a fuel-duty rise has bitten the dust.

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