Oil Prices Subside After Output-Freeze Hopes Dashed

Graphic for News Item: Oil Prices Subside After Output-Freeze Hopes Dashed

Closer Saudi Arabia, Russia cooperation might yet put a floor under crude prices

Oil prices were mixed Tuesday after a volatile session the day before triggered by hopes for a production freeze agreement from major producers.

The November contract for global crude benchmark Brent was down 0.63% at $47.33 while its U.S. counterpart West Texas Intermediate was up 1.25% at $45.02 for October deliveries.

Brent spiked by over 5% briefly on Monday morning fueled by the hope that Russia and Saudi Arabia were going to announce a joint initiative that would freeze or reduce output from the world’s two largest oil producers. However, the two countries made only vague promises of greater cooperation.

“I think yesterday’s lack of an agreement puts paid to any hopes that a production freeze is going to happen,” Edward Bell, an analyst at the Dubai-based Emirates NBD bank said. “Everyone is just going to have to accept that oil is lodged in the $45-$50 a barrel bracket until the fundamental factors underpinning the market start to level off. It’s where we are right now.”

A Maersk oil tanker in the Mediterranean. Oil prices were mixed Tuesday after a volatile session the day before triggered by hopes for a production freeze agreement from major producers.

A Maersk oil tanker in the Mediterranean. Oil prices were mixed Tuesday after a volatile session the day before triggered by hopes for a production freeze agreement from major producers.

Most observers weren’t surprised at the lack of any viable plan, with most citing national interests within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries as making joint production freezes unlikely. Iran, Nigeria and Libya are three producers looking to increase output with as much as 2 million barrels a day of supply that could hypothetically come onstream.

Olivier Jakob from the Switzerland-based Petromatrix said that while it was clear no production freezes were on the horizon, the announcement suggested that both parties were happy to support a price floor.

“It seems there is some willingness to provide a price floor now, whereas in the past Saudi Arabia was happy to let the market sort itself out whatever the current price,” he said. “So you should see a much narrower trading range develop where prices won’t venture under $40 [a barrel], but won’t really rise above $55 either.”

Last week’s stock build in the U.S. was the starting point for bearish trading that saw over 8% being wiped off the value of Brent, so traders and money managers will be keeping a close watch on this week’s figures. The industry body the American Petroleum Institute releases its inventory forecast on Wednesday with the Energy Information Administration publishing the official data on Thursday.

Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for October—the benchmark gasoline contract was up 0.76% at $1,42 a gallon, while October diesel traded at $1.42, 0.77% higher.

ICE gasoil for September changed hands at $412.25 a metric ton, down $2.00 from Monday’s settlement.

 

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