Oil Could Cruise to $50 but Struggle Beyond That
Few technical barriers may stop crude oil’s charge toward $50 a barrel although stiffer resistance before $55 could spark profit-taking on the market’s biggest rebound in two years, chart analysts said on Friday.
Crude prices have surged nearly 80 percent from 12-year lows of around $27 a barrel hit by global benchmark Brent in late January and around $26 a barrel struck by the U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) in mid-February.
On Friday, both hit 2016 highs, with Brent striking $48.50 and WTI $45.90.
Brent could cross into $50 territory in the next few sessions, but will struggle beyond $53 which marks the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the market’s crash to $27.10 on Jan. 20 from a high of $69.63 on May 6, said Fawad Razaqzada, technical analyst at City Index in London.
“My target for Brent’s real resistance is at around $53,” he said.
The $53 level could also serve as a psychological deterrent as it is almost double the low hit by Brent this year.
“If you’re a bullish speculator in oil and you’re asking yourself where to take profit, it’s likely you’ll be looking at this key resistance,” Razaqzada said.
Matthew Sferro, who studies technical charts for crude at New York’s Informa Global Markets, also sees stiff challenge for Brent at between $50 and $55.
Sferro has two main resistance points: $54.05, which marks a high set on Oct. 9, and $54.32, a peak from Aug. 31.
“It’s reasonable that things could start to reverse in this area,” he said.
WTI’s hurdles beyond $50 would first be at $53.89, which matches a July 10 high, and then $56.51, which represents a May 28 low, Sferro said.