Brexit: The Industry Reacts
This morning the oil and gas industry is reacting to the news that the UK is set to leave the EU after the exit campaign won by 52% to 48%.
Here are some early reactions from industry so far:
Neil Thomson, Managing Director of The Visa Team commented: “After the seemingly limitless media exposure and enormous campaign expenditure, it came as a surprise to many this morning that the UK has decided its future, by leaving the EU. Nonetheless, it will take time to really see what affects this will have on individuals and businesses and what additional red tape will be introduced.
“The question we are being asked is, will UK citizens require visas to travel within Europe? Travel in Europe is not governed by the EU Treaty but by other agreements such as the Schengen Agreement. The UK is not part of Schengen but has agreed a visa-free regime with the Schengen countries. Not all European countries are part of Schengen, so it is at least theoretically possible that some of these countries might one day decide to require visas.”
Ian Armstrong, Divisional Director of Brewin Dolphin said: “We think that the impact on the UK Oil and Gas sector from the Brexit vote is very modest. The oil and gas industry primarily operates in US dollars but the proportion of earnings from the UK in the oil majors BP and Royal Dutch is relatively low. Ironically, it could make the North Sea a more attractive place for investment. The dividends at the two majors are paid in US dollars and therefore, UK shareholders should benefit from a translational effect.
“In terms of the oil price and oil demand, a stronger dollar is usually unhelpful and we think that the uncertainty caused by the vote will impact growth in Europe. However, oil product demand in the European Union is only 13.3% of global demand and is smaller than in the US (20.4%) and considerably smaller than in the Asia Pacific which accounts for 33% of global demand.
“Demand in the latter two areas is growing much faster than in EU and this increase demand combined with the fall in non-OPEC production will move the oil market closer to balance. In our view this is the main driver of steadily rising oil prices and unless there is a major economic downturn the Brexit vote will not change this.”
Scott Lehmann, VP Product Management & Product Marketing, Petrotechnics said: “The UK’s decision to leave the EU brings a new period of uncertainty for the UK oil and gas sector – the full effects of which may not be realised for some time. As an international industry, success depends on our ability to attract highly skilled talent to our shores and leaving the EU may limit the mobility of people both in and out of the UK. However, as a mature oil and gas region, the low oil price environment is likely to have by far the biggest impact on the future prosperity of the UK North Sea.”
While Peter Searle, CEO of global workforce solutions provider Airswift commented: “The poll we conducted prior to the vote revealed that only 32 per cent of energy sector workers would have voted to remain. That said, this result could create uncertainty for North Sea operators, particularly around the need to source talent for projects in and around the EU. However, leaving the EU could ultimately signal a more prosperous future for the UK North Sea. Norway, a key player in the energy industry, already exists successfully outside of the EU and now it’s the UK’s time to carve out its own future.”