IT’S BEEN a tumultuous start to 2016 for Scotland’s oil industry, with a slump that some predict will cost our economy billions.

Falling oil prices have been great news for drivers. But the likes of BP, Plexus and ConocoPhillips are counting the cost of slashed profits – and of acting to meet the shortfall the only way they know how.

Inevitably, and unfortunately, such a dramatic price slump in such a short time means job losses.

Across the recruitment sector, we spoke to many people who saw the way the wind was blowing. Some took steps to retrain, but the devastating, demoralising reality of true, sustained unemployment is very difficult to prepare for.

There were warnings last summer that thousands faced unemployment after a fresh slump. That has been borne out, with some reports suggesting 65,000 people have entered the job market.

Many of those facing job worries are high earners. Their wages are falling in the crisis, with cuts of as much as 30 per cent reported.

That means these professionals will spend less and contribute less to the economy. They may also look to move, affecting house prices.

Oil is a transient, nomadic industry. Workers will go where the jobs are, and leave a major financial vacuum when they leave.

Many workers are moving to the central belt to get jobs. That trend looks set to continue, and a large influx of highly trained professionals will drive salaries down.

The job cuts at oil firms are the tip of the iceberg in terms of how this slump will hit the country. The ripple effect for onshore businesses in their supply chain is likely to be unforgiving.

So where do we go from here?

Oil and gas clients we have spoken to say the price must get back to 60 to 70 dollars a barrel before expansion can start again.

We’ll get there, but industry sources say it will take some time.

So for the workers, it’s a waiting game – a case of sitting tight.

As the price rises, business will improve, new projects will begin, firms will rehire and salaries will stabilise and ultimately rise.

The industry faces one of its greatest challenges.

But with a credible action plan to secure the jobs that are the lifeblood of our economy, a sustainable future can emerge, based on a stronger, better protected foundation.

The workforce doesn’t have to be so transient – it just needs assurances.

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