According to the latest projections from the Texas Workforce Commission, however, that recovery in employment may never come.

Every two years, the state agency takes numbers from the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics and breaks them down to the local level. A couple years ago, they were very optimistic about the mining industry, forecasting upwards of 30 percent growth for job categories from roustabouts to geoscientists between 2012 and 2022:

But the trends that existed in the run-up to 2014 are a lot different from the ones that followed, with a severe downturn in oil prices pulling the financial rug out from fracking and drilling operations. Taking that reversal into account, the number crunchers came up with a very different picture for the following decade. Through 2024 statewide, the mining sector is expected to lose nearly 50,000 jobs if current trends continue, or 16.8 percent from the 2014 baseline.

Granted, the industry has already lost even more than that between 2014 and 2016, meaning that it would actually need to grow slightly to meet the Texas Workforce Commission’s projection. But the new calculations suggest that the mining industry won’t be making a full recovery.

So now, those job categories look more like this:

In greater Houston specifically, the mining and logging sector is now expected to shrink by 14 percent between 2014 and 2024. Two years ago, the state expected mining and logging to grow by 32.6 percent between 2012 and 2022. The effect is nearly as drastic for manufacturing, which is now projected to grow only 1.9 percent through 2024, down from 22.8 percent projected growth two years ago.

That was a surprise to Parker Harvey, regional economist with Gulf Coast Workforce Solutions, the quasi-governmental agency that coordinates workforce development efforts in a region that leans heavily on oil and gas jobs.

“It’s going to chance things for us here, in terms of the occupations we support,” Harvey says, meaning that Workforce Solutions likely won’t focus its tuition assistance programs as much on occupations that are expected to shrink instead of grow.

It’s not necessarily a surprise, however, if you’ve been watching the advancements that the oil and gas industry has been making during this time of $45 per barrel oil. Rigs are now much more efficient, with automation getting rid of some of the most dangerous and difficult jobs.

In response to a query, the Texas Oil and Gas Association did not dispute the projections, saying only that the industry is “central to our lives and our economy, supporting some of the best paying jobs in the state and nation.”

Fortunately, while oil and gas is still an important driver of the Houston-area economy and Texas overall, it’s not the only one. The Workforce Commission is still projecting a 20.7 percent job growth rate between 2014 and 2024, which would exceed the record-breaking growth of the decade between 2004 and 2014. It’s expecting and a 22.4 percent growth rate for the Houston area, only slightly off its 2014 projection of 23.8 percent.

Here’s how much the industries are expected to grow, in absolute numbers:

And if you’re coming out of high school now, looking for a career where you’re most likely to get a job? Might want to consider a few of the following, which are the occupations expected to see the most growth through 2024:

Now, there’s a slight problem with that list: With the exception registered nurses, most of those job categories are paid barely enough to live on. The higher-income positions, like those in financial services and software development, might be growing quickly — but from a much smaller base, so fewer openings are available.

Of course, improbable as it may seem at the moment, this year’s projections show that all that could change very quickly. This analysis can only predict the future to the extent that it reflects the present, which usually turns out to be limited.

Source: Houston Chronicle